Self deportations on the rise

The number of people remaining in the U.S. illegally is declining rapidly; hundreds of thousands are leaving on their own; the government is no longer releasing people into the country who shouldn’t be; and wages are starting to rise. Congress can keep these trends going by fully funding immigration enforcement. Congress can make these trends more permanent (and less disruptive) by passing mandatory E-Verify.

Illegal population declining, fast

The illegal immigrant population has declined by as many as one million since January according to preliminary estimates from the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS).

CIS cautions: “this conclusion comes with important caveats, stemming directly from the limitations in the available data.” The trend, however, is obvious.

The size of the illegal population grew by over a million every year from 2021-2025. Enforcement is now reversing that trend.

Among those who remain in the country illegally, the number of people returning to their home nations on their own is on the rise and even eclipses the number who have been removed by the Trump Administration. As CIS fellow Andrew R. Arthur writes, “DHS can’t arrest and deport 15.4 million illegal aliens, but if it simply enforces the law, many aliens will get the message and leave on their own — as hundreds of thousands apparently already have.”

Unfortunately, Immigration and Customs Enforcement is running out of money. If the Senate doesn’t pass the enforcement funding in the budget Reconciliation bill, word will spread quickly that interior enforcement will itself be handcuffed. With less enforcement – and no E-Verify – expect more people to choose to remain in the country illegally.

The border is secure; the migrant crisis continues

At least six million inadmissible aliens were released into the United States between 2021 and 2025. Last month, ZERO inadmissible aliens were released into the country. (This also requires enforcement funding to maintain!)

The impact of the largest wave of illegal immigration in U.S. history, however, can still be felt and measured around the country. Just this week, we learned that the Massachusetts shelter system alone will cost taxpayers $1 BILLION this fiscal year. New York City has an almost $1 BILLION contract to continue putting up migrants in hotels through the year 2029.

E-Verify: the ultimate force multiplier (that requires less “force”)

How important is it to convince illegal aliens to go home on their own? Over the first 100 days of the Trump Administration, ICE arrested and removed roughly 65,000 illegal aliens; but hundreds of thousands appear to have left of their own accord!

Hard enforcement is necessary, but not sufficient. Hard enforcement is necessary, but sometimes produces disruptive, unhappy scenes. As my colleague Jim Robb tells me, “there’s a way to avoid those scenes in the future, if we add the soft power of E-Verify.”

As Oren Cass acknowledges in his article for Understanding America, we will always have a need for immigration enforcement. In the long-run, however, he argues that hard enforcement must be paired with “a more methodical model for addressing decades of failed policy and securing the labor market against the possibility of future floods.”

Cass’ solution? E-Verify:

“Mandatory E-Verify should be the cornerstone of labor market enforcement. U.S. policymakers already have a system, called “E-Verify,” that validates the legal status of American workers. What’s lacking is the political will to ensure its consistent use. Employers should have no choice; they should face penalties for employing illegal workers even inadvertently, and penalties for intentional and repeated offenses should be catastrophic and include criminal prosecution. The law should recognize that the employer who opts for illegal and exploitable labor and undermines the power of American workers is committing a far more serious and less excusable offense against the community than the illegal immigrant pursuing a better life. Aggressive deterrence of employer malfeasance constrains the labor supply directly and, by eliminating the job opportunities and thus much of the incentive for illegal immigration, offers an efficient means of addressing that challenge as well.”

Legal workers gain from enforcement

Two days after a workplace enforcement action at a Nebraska meatpacking plant identified roughly 70 alleged illegal workers who had committed identity theft, NBC News reported: “Every seat in the waiting area [was filled] with people filling out job applications.”

There is no labor shortage, and no job Americans aren’t already doing. The meatpacking industry has a long and twisted history with immigration. My colleague Chris Pierce has the details on the Nebraska raid, and information on bills Congress (H.R. 251 & S. 1151) can pass to crack down on identity theft.

The victims of the identity thieves captured in Nebraska include a nursing student in Missouri who lost their tuition assistance, and a Pennsylvania resident who was denied “medically necessary prescriptions.” They and the other victims may now find some relief, while work-authorized residents of Nebraska gain new job opportunities.